The upcoming heist film In The Grey starring Henry Cavill and Jake Gyllenhaal has received a mixed Rotten Tomatoes prediction. Slated to release in US theaters on May 15, this action thriller follows a secret team of operatives, including Cid (Henry Cavill) and Bronco (Jake Gyllenhaal), as they attempt to take back a billion dollars that the despot Manny Salazar (Carlos Bardem) has stolen. The cast includes Eiza González, Kristofer Hivju, Jason Wong, and Rosamund Pike. Written and directed by Guy Ritchie, In The Grey has surprisingly received middle-of-the-road box office predictions given the cast, partly due to the film’s rocky release schedule.
In The Grey will need to fight for a Fresh Rotten Tomatoes score
Guy Ritchie’s In The Grey is predicted to get a 55.8% critics rating on Rotten Tomatoes, or somewhere between 55% and 60%, based on a bet on Kalshi (as of May 11). The full results of the prediction market show that the film is on the cusp of receiving a “Fresh” rating, which is earned for a score that goes over the 60% threshold.
- Above 30 (Rotten Tomatoes rating) – 96%
- Above 35 – 93%
- Above 40 – 92%
- Above 45 – 78%
- Above 50 – 67%
- Above 55 – 52%
- Above 60 – 40%
- Above 65 – 22%
- Above 70 – 29%
- Above 75 – 9%
- Above 80 – 3%
- Above 85 – Less than 1%
- Above 90 – N/A [technically “–%”]
- Above 95 – Less than 1%
Taking into consideration the full history of the bet, which began on April 22, the full range for the film’s RT score goes from a low of 53.3% to a high of 67.6%. However, that upper bound was due to a huge spike that lasted for less than half a day before the forecast fell back to the mid-50s.
This predicted rating is surprisingly low for a Guy Ritchie production. The famed director has worked with Cavill and Gyllenhaal in prior films that received higher scores from critics. This includes The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare (2024) that has a 68% rating, Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant (2023) that earned a higher 82%, and The Man From U.N.C.L.E (2015) that scored a 68%. The first two movies on this short list earned an audience rating of over 90%, so Ritchie has a recent record of making films that score well with reviewers and casual moviegoers.
It’s true that The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare didn’t perform well at the box office, earning only $29.8 million on a $60 million budget. And Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant had a similar fate, making $21.9 million on a $55 million budget. However, the director’s recent lack of commercial success has only been loosely connected to his success with critics.
The difference in scores when it comes to In The Grey likely stems from its erratic release schedule and production woes. The film was impacted by the 2023 SAG-AFTRA strike, though it received permission to have its actors continue working on the movie amid the stoppage. Filming only lasted three months from September to October 2023, and Lionsgate had the action flick ready to be released on January 17, 2025.
But the distributor removed In The Grey from its theatrical schedule in late November 2024 since the movie was not yet finished, per Deadline. It took about a year until Black Bear Pictures (Black Bear International was handling the movie overseas from the start) acquired the American distribution rights from Lionsgate and announced in January 2026 that it would release the movie themselves on April 10, 2026. It was then delayed one more time to its current US debut of May 15.
In The Grey is expected to bring in $5.5 million, within the range of $4 million to $9 million, in its domestic opener and $13.8 million for its full domestic run, according to an analysis from BoxOfficeTheory.
