An acclaimed actress is now the early favorite to win her first Oscar in 2027, and her lead is only growing. The race toward the 99th Academy Awards is on the way as the Palme d’Or competition for the Cannes Film Festival is in full swing. The early buzz from this prestigious award contest has strong influence on the Oscars, as a handful of films in its main competition are typically recognized as nominees throughout the Academy Awards. For the Oscars earlier this year, that included The Secret Agent, It Was Just an Accident, and Sentimental Value, which notably had acting nominations in Best Lead Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress.

Fjord could catapult Renate Reinsve to the Best Lead Actress Oscar in 2027

Norwegian actress Renate Reinsve, for her performance in Fjord, is the frontrunner heading into the 2027 Oscars for the Best Lead Actress category, according to a bet on Kalshi (as of May 8). In Fjord, she plays Norwegian mother Lisbet Gheorghiu who faces scrutiny alongside her Romanian husband Mihai Gheorghiu (Sebastian Stan) after they move to her mother’s hometown.

Sandra Hüller was tied with Reinsve for about a week in April, but Reinsve now has a commanding lead in early predictions. The full results can be found below:

Renate Reinsve (Fjord) – 30%
Cynthia Erivo (Prima Facie) – 13%
Sandra Hüller (Rose) – 12%
Scarlet Johansson (Paper Tiger) – 10%
Dakota Johnson (Verity) – 6%
Joan Collins (The Duchess and I) – 6%
Kirsten Dunst (The Entertainment System Is Down) – 6%
Natalie Portman (Photograph 51) – 6%
Penélope Cruz (The Invite) – 6%

Since these odds are extremely early, they should be taken with a heavy grain of salt. The volume of the bet is only about three thousand dollars (at the time of writing), so the percentages can flip wildly and likely will as we get closer to the end of the year.

That said, a similar Kalshi bet on the potential 2026 Oscar nominations show that Reinsve is not in the lead and includes several other actresses that should be considered. These results suggest that Reinsve has greater competition in the category than originally expected.

Sandra Hüller (Rose) – 46%
Renate Reinsve (Fjord) – 43%
Mikey Madison (The Social Reckoning) – 39%
Michelle Williams (A Place in Hell) – 37%
Cynthia Erivo (Prima Facie) – 25%
Julianne Moore (“Untitled A24 Film Directed by Jesse Eisenberg”) – 24%
Scarlett Johansson (Paper Tiger) – 24%
Joan Collins (The Duchess and I) – 20%
Lily Gladstone (Lone Wolf) – 20%
Natalie Portman (Photograph 51) – 20%
Daisy Edgar-Jones (Sense and Sensibility) – 17%
Penélope Cruz (The Invite) – 16%
Kirsten Dunst (The Entertainment System Is Down) – 14%
Emily Blunt (Disclosure Day) – 13%
Dakota Johnson (Verity) – 12%

Renate Reinsve has received past recognition from major award shows, winning the award for European Actress for her work in Sentimental Value at the European Film Awards in 2026. For this role, she was nominated at the Oscars, BAFTA, and Golden Globes too. She previously received various nominations for her roles in The Worst Person in the World and Armand.

Directed and written by Cristian Mungiu, Fjord has received early buzz for being in the mix for the Palme d’Or. The film is in the hunt to be nominated for the Oscar for Best International Feature Film, alongside 1949 / Fatherland, All of a Sudden, Parallel Tales, and Hope. It also has a shot of being nominated for the Best Original Screenplay, though Digger and Wild Horse Nine are leading the category.

Reinsve stars in the upcoming psychological horror film Backrooms where she plays a therapist who decides to figure out where her patient (Chiwetel Ejiofor) has gone. The A24 film is expected to be a breakout hit at the box office and score well with critics.