Will Hume on the box office performance of Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day…
After 13 days in release, Disclosure Day has reached a defining stage in its theatrical run. The initial rush of audience interest has clearly translated into strong early revenue, and the film currently sits at $165 million worldwide, with a nearly even split between domestic and international numbers (which are only updated on weekends). That balance is notable: it signals genuine global appeal rather than the Stateside heavy grosses of fellow Steven Spielberg-produced Universal-Amblin release Twisters, which also took place in the U.S. South, last year’s blockbuster Oscar-winning Sinners, and Nope, another southern-set UFO film. All those films collapsed overseas despite their success stateside.
What happens next will not be about whether the film can find an audience but about how efficiently it can continues to hold that audience through a crowded summer corridor.
A Strong start for Spielberg and Hollywood Original Movies…
With over $10 billion in worldwide box office, Spielberg is the highest-grossing director of all time. Yet his films tend to open softer and leg out. His last blockbuster, 2018’s Ready Player One opened to $42 million over Easter weekend but finaled at $137 million. Disclosure Day had the highest opening for a Steven Spielberg film since 2008’s Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull18 years ago. It also marks the highest opening for an original film by Spielberg; outdrawing Saving Private Ryan’s record by $14 million.
In terms of original Hollywood comparisons, it sits below Sinners and Hoppers openings of $48 million and $46 million respectively. Factoring in international numbers it had a $93 million worldwide debut against the 88 million openings of Hoppers and the $61 million of Sinners, both original films not based on any pre-existing material. Sinners, which was a smash hit locally, internationally underperformed due to Warner Bros.’ alleged underspending from cost cuts, which might have also been the case with Twisters. Universal however does not have that problem and did a great job of getting the word out mostly on Spielberg’s name alone. The poster simply was a floating eye with the title and Spielberg above the name.
Trouble on the Horizon?
In its second weekend the film declined 60% although it’s hard to gauge whether it is due primarily to competition from the behemoth that is Toy Story 5 or mixed word of mouth. Collectively, Disclosure Day was well-reviewed. An 80% certified fresh Rotten Tomatoes rating and a 74/ 100 on Metacritic. However, audience scores are a different story. It has a 71% Popcorn rating on Rotten Tomatoes (not certified hot which is over 80) and a 5.3/10 Meta User score. The film received a B Cinema Score, an audience exit poll that grades on a high curve (A is excellent, B is okay, C is bad). Spielberg’s West Side Story received an A Cinema Score then lost two-thirds of its audience the next weekend when Spider-Man: No Way Home came out and became the third highest grossing film of all-time in North America.
One of Spielberg’s coldest audience receptions was for the film A.I.: Artificial Intelligence, a muted sci-fi drama with bits of action that also opened in June and received a C+ Cinema Score. The Box Office take of that film still had a 2.67 multiplier. Although that was 25 years ago when theatrical attendance was at its peak.
The third upcoming weekend for Disclosure Day has competition from the sci-fi action film Supergirl (although reviews are so-so). How it does then will be telling for the rest of its run; if it flies above what I’m currently projecting is a 120 million domestic/ 240 million worldwide mark.
The upside is that Universal cracked the code on marketing a Spielberg film theatrically after 7x Oscar and Best Picture nominees The Fabelmans & West Side Story bombed at the Box Office. There was a question of whether Spielberg could still draw event level audiences that seems to be answered.
Competitive Environment
After Supergirl a week later Spielberg will face another animated behemoth the Minions (Minions and Monsters), in which his pal George Lucas provides a voice and is expected to give up more screens as its a fellow Universal release. A week later Moana arrives and is expected to do well. Then finally The Odyssey in Week 6 which has a direct overlap in older adult audiences and will take a number of the remaining screens, but a month spread was always part of the Universal plan as Disclosure Day will likely be at or below single digit millions at that point.
Profitability Measure
The profitability measure is simply 2x’s the production budget. Given marketing budgets are rarely reported and ancillary revenues are largely unknown, the two tend to cancel each other out unless heavy TV play or viral social media clips indicate a stickiness that implies the film might have done better on home video than expected. With Hollywood accounting, studios would rather its partners think a film made less profit to avoid larger payoffs. Spielberg is a shrewd businessman who is very budget conscious. Adjusted for inflation, Disclosure Day, with a production budget of approximately $115 million, costs half of what War of the Worlds cost 20 years ago. Adding in the $80 million in marketing costs and you’re still well under $200 million for a tentpole film which means everyone involved got paid their full rate. According to Variety, Emily Blunt received $15 million, Spielberg $10, and Josh O’Connor $6, leaving $84 million for the rest of the film. Barring a total collapse, even on the low end of theatrical performance, Universal will have a tentpole film that will be entering the black by the time it leaves theatres and that is a very good place to be.
Beyond theatrical, additional revenue streams in home entertainment with premium digital rentals, video on demand, 4K’s, Blu-rays, DVD’s, streaming, licensing, and broadcast TV will continue extending the film’s financial lifecycle well after its theatrical run concludes. Extending the film’s cultural legacy which is good for the bottom line; Emily Blunt is also currently a leading candidate for Best Actress at the Academy Awards given she was previously Oscar nominated, for visibility was in another hit film this year, and here delivers career best work. Although the Academy has routinely ignored sci-fi actresses like Jodie Foster in Contact and Amy Adams in Arrival, Spielberg being a former member of the Board of Governors as a 24 time nominee and 3 time winner, and the Academy’s embrace of blockbuster films in recent years could overcome that bias. Spielberg has previously directed Academy Award winning performances in every other category and produced last year’s Best Actress winner Hamnet.
Disclosure Day is not an uncertain financial case, and is poised to be a solid hit at least. It reaffirms how original blockbusters can succeed in the modern theatrical landscape and that older audiences will still show up for a film if it looks exciting and a quality name is attached, it’s just that that quality now more often than not has to be the director, and who better than a multi-Oscar winning one whose name literally translates to ‘play mountain’?
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Will Hume
