It’s been a rocky road for Top Chef Season 23, but one contestant is already by far and away the favorite to come out as the winner of the prestigious cooking competition. At the time of writing, we’re past the halfway point for Top Chef: Carolinas, with the remaining contestants having gone past the infamous Restaurant Wars episode. After chef Jennifer Lee Jackson dramatically left the show for medical reasons and her husband Justin Tootla decided not to come back as her replacement, eliminated chef Sieger Bayer returned to the Bravo TV competition. However, one Top Chef hopeful has become the clear favorite to take home the title.
Rhoda Magbitang is expected to win Top Chef: Carolinas in a landslide
Hawaii’s Rhoda Magbitang is predicted to be the winner of Top Chef 2026, based on several prediction markets (as of May 1).
On Polymarket, Rhoda has an outstanding 95% chance to win, which is a 90-point margin over Massachusetts-based chef Laurence Louie who has a 5% chance. Chef Duyen Ha from Los Angeles received 4% of the vote, while the remaining chefs have only gotten 1% or less in the betting spread. Chef Oscar Diaz once held the lead in February and had a nearly 74% chance to win at one point, but the odds have wildly flipped since the beginning of March.
Rhoda’s wide lead is apparent on Kalshi as well, where she has a 93% chance to be the victor. Laurence is in second place once again in this bet, though he has a much higher 14% chance to be the spoiler. Meanwhile, Duyen has a much lower chance at 2%, though she had a much higher 52% chance to late February. Once again, the rest of the contestants barely have any ‘Yes’ votes in the spread.
It’s surprising that Rhoda has such a commanding lead to win this season given that the chef was already eliminated in the fifth episode of the series titled “Cut and Dry.” She served a squid ink-crusted roasted monkfish with an adobo sauce, also blackened with squid ink, along with dehydrated broccoli and a garlic chip. Head judge Tom Colicchio was surprised Rhoda said the fish was roasted and thought it tasted steamed, and host Kristen Kish thought it “felt raw and spongy.” So despite Rhoda having won the first two challenges of Season 23, the first time this has happened in Top Chef history, she was told to pack her knives and go.
Luckily for Rhoda, she has had a strong run on Last Chance Kitchen, where eliminated contestants can come back to the competition at specified points in the season. With renewed determination, the chef was able to defeat Nana Araba Wilmot with a Singaporean Chili Crab, Justin Tootla with a dish composed of whipped beef tallow, scallops, and tuna tartare, and Brandon Dearden with a three-course progressive menu that included a carrot salad, seared scallop, and roasted duck breast. With her victory over Brandon, she was given the opportunity to return to the main competition and is expected to make a comeback on the May 4 episode titled “The Ultimate Dinner Party.”
Her journey on the series is comparable to Kristen Kish’s own run in Top Chef Season 10, where she was eliminated after multiple victories but then came back through Last Chance Kitchen and eventually won the title.
After the May 4 show, there will only be three more episodes left in the season, with the finale of Top Chef 2026 airing on May 25. At the time of writing, there are still seven other contestants who could take home the title. Rhoda’s greatest competition comes from Anthony Jones and Laurence Louie who have two victories under their belt this season, and Sieger Bayer and Duyen Ha who have won one each. Sherry Cardroso has been near the top in the last five challenges too, while Jonathan Dearden and Oscar Diaz have struggled to break out from the middle of the pack.
