The upcoming Star Wars spinoff The Mandalorian & Grogu has gotten a positive prediction for its Rotten Tomatoes rating. Releasing on May 22, 2026, in the United States, the Lucasfilm production has received mixed news on its box office forecast, with some projections believing that the Pedro Pascal-led film will earn around $80 million in its domestic opener that isn’t as high as those from past movies in the franchise. However, it’s still one of the major summer blockbusters this summer, and it’s now being angled as a family-friendly option in a similar vein as Ryan Gosling’s Project Hail Mary. And at least when it comes to the critics score for The Mandalorian & Grogu, many believe that it will be fairly high.
Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu is predicted to get ‘Fresh’ RT rating
As of May 4, The Mandalorian & Grogu is predicted to earn a 73.3% critics rating on Rotten Tomatoes, as based on a Kalshi bet. This forecast comes around three weeks before the movie’s theatrical release, so it’s important to take this with a great of salt.
The full results of the prediction market are noted below:
- Above 30 (Rotten Tomatoes score) – 98% chance
- Above 35 – 97%
- Above 40 – 96%
- Above 45 – 94%
- Above 50 – 85%
- Above 55 – 86%
- Above 60 – 81%
- Above 65 – 73%
- Above 70 – 62%
- Above 75 – 44%
- Above 80 – 32%
- Above 85 – 26%
- Above 90 – 12%
- Above 95 – 1%
A “Fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes is given for movies that go over a 60 Tomatometer score, so the movie looks on firm footing to receive this rating. The mid-70 prediction is very close to the site’s highest moniker of “Certified Fresh,” which requires a 75% or higher critics score, so the film will need to fight to earn this status.
Looking at the history of the Kalshi bet, which started on April 20, the predicted critics rating for the movie has fluctuated between a fairly narrow range from 72 to 76. Since it’s still early, this prediction will likely change as we get more reviews for the film closer to its release. At the time of writing, it’s not yet clear when the review embargo will lift.
Compared to other Star Wars spinoffs, this 73.3% RT rating for The Mandalorian & Grogu is higher than the 69% of 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story but lower than the 84% of 2016’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. But it’s much better than the 51% for the franchise’s most recent Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker from 2019. Meanwhile, the Rotten Tomatoes rating for the third season of The Mandalorian on Disney+ stands at a high 84%, though its audience score is significantly lower at 51%.
The mixed fan reaction to the 2023 season of the TV show could explain part of the reason why the movie’s predicted Rotten Tomatoes rating is hovering near the low 70s. ComingSoon’s Brandon Schreur reviewed the film’s mid-April trailer, admitting that he was enamored with the first season of the series but lost interest by the third. While he remarks that the earlier trailers for the movie focused on Baby Yoda, he was more impressed with the action scenes in the new trailer and that “some of these bits actually look pretty fun and exciting.”
Another reason is that casual moviegoers might feel that they are required to watch all three seasons of The Mandalorian show to understand the context of the upcoming film. In fact, series creator Jon Favreau recently explained that The Mandalorian & Grogu was originally going to be the fourth season of the show, and that the new direction to turn it into a film amid the writer’s strike in 2023 forced him to start from scratch on the script.
