Predictions for the 2027 Oscars are admittedly very early at this point, but one director already has a clear lead to take home the Academy Award for Best Director. The dust has barely settled since the 2026 Oscars, where Paul Thomas Anderson finally won his first Best Director statuette for One Battle After Another, yet many movie buffs are putting their money down on who they think will rule next year’s 99th Academy Awards. So far in 2026, early award buzz has surrounded Phil Lord and Christopher Miller for Ryan Gosling’s Project Hail Mary and Na Hong-jin for Michael Fassbender’s Hope, just to name a few. Still, there’s one director who many expect will secure his second Best Director win at the 2027 Oscars, which is scheduled to air on March 14, 2027.

Christopher Nolan is the early favorite to win the Best Director Oscar in 2027

Seasoned director Christopher Nolan has a commending lead in early predictions on who will win the 2027 Oscar for Best Director, according to a bet on Kalshi (as of April 30). He holds a 39% chance to win for his work in the upcoming summer blockbuster The Odyssey, which will land in theaters on July 17, 2026.

The full results of the bet (in descending order) reveal a strong number of candidates who could compete with Nolan:

Christopher Nolan (for The Odyssey) – 39%
David Fincher (for The Adventures of Cliff Booth) – 14%
Andrew Haigh (for A Long Winter) – 13%
Joel Coen (for Jack of Spades) – 12%
Danny Boyle (for Ink) – 11%
Steven Spielberg (for Disclosure Day) – 8%
Phil Lord and Christopher Miller (for Project Hail Mary) – 7%
Na Hong-jin (for Hope) – 6%
Martin McDonagh (for Wild Horse Nine) – 2%

This prediction market, which opened on March 19, has had Nolan in the lead for nearly its entire timeline, with the notable exception of Martin McDonagh who took over the top spot for about a day in the middle of April. Of course, it should be emphasized that the Best Director category at the Oscars only has five nominees, so some of the options in the bet will be knocked out when the nominations for the ceremony are announced in January 2027.

More importantly, the bet is surprisingly missing several key directors from the list. A similar predicton market on Kalshi that asks who will be nominated for the Best Director Oscar next year highlights Pawel Pawlikowski for 1949 / Fatherland at 37%, Greta Gerwig for Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew at 24%, and Olivia Wilde for The Invite at 10%. These directors could shake up the category, though Nolan also has the early lead here with a 83% chance.

That said, both bets don’t mention two-time Best Director winner Alejandro G. Iñárritu for Digger, which has the potential to lead Tom Cruise to his first acting Oscar. Nor do they mention Aaron Sorkin for The Social Reckoning, the sequel to the 2010 Best Picture nominee The Social Network. Nor does it list Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Three, a movie that could have more Oscar presence than Dune: Part Two given that it’s the final film in the trilogy.

With an astounding $250 million budget, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is billed as one of this summer’s biggest blockbusters. The level of star power for the fantasy action film is equally impressive, featuring Matt Damon, Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Zendaya, Robert Pattinson, Lupita Nyong’o, and Charlize Theron (who will be playing the nymph Calypso and not the goddess Circe as previously rumored). Nolan revealed that the movie will not be as long as the three-hour Oppenheimer, for which he received his first Best Director Oscar.

In mid-April, The Odyssey held the lead for the Best Picture Oscar with a 19-point margin over Project Hail Mary. This gap has since widened with The Odyssey at a 37% chance to win and Dune: Part Three in second place with a mere 13%.