Pixar’s Toy Story 5 has received great news with an extraordinarily high Rotten Tomatoes prediction. This is right in line with the other four movies in the beloved animated franchise, which have all received lofty critic reviews. Directed and co-written by Andrew Stanton, the comedy-drama follows Jessie (Joan Cusack) as the new leader of the toys who, along with the aging Woody (Tom Hanks) and second-in-command Buzz Lightyear (Tim Allen), confronts a frog-like tablet called Lilypad (Greta Lee) that is taking all of their kid’s attention. Other members of the star-studded voice cast include Conan O’Brien as Smarty Pants, Tony Hale as Forky, Keanu Reeves as Duke Caboom, and Bad Bunny as a Pizza with Sunglasses. Toy Story 5 is scheduled to arrive in the United States on June 19, 2026, though it will premiere earlier in Los Angeles on June 9.

Toy Story 5 is expected to gain Certified Fresh status easily

As of June 8, Toy Story 5 is forecast to earn a 93% critics rating on Rotten Tomatoes, according to a bet on Kalshi. The coveted Certified Fresh status on the site is given to films with a 75% or higher rating based on at least five reviews from top critics. The full results of the bet can be found below:

Above 45 (Rotten Tomatoes rating) – 99% chance
Above 50 – 99% chance
Above 55 – 99% chance
Above 60 – 99% chance
Above 65 – 96% chance
Above 70 – 95% chance
Above 75 – 94% chance
Above 80 – 87% chance
Above 85 – 85% chance
Above 87 – 81% chance
Above 90 – 72% chance
Above 92 – 61% chance
Above 95 – 38% chance
Above 97 – 14% chance

Delving into the history of the bet, which started on May 24, the Rotten Tomatoes prediction for Toy Story 5 has remained high, floating consistently between 92% and 93% for the entire duration. Still, as always, it’s important to take these predictions with a grain of salt. We’ll learn more about what the Rotten Tomatoes score will be for the movie when the social media reaction embargo lifts on June 9 and the review embargo lifts on June 16.

Surprising as it is, this predicted 93% rating for Toy Story 5 would actually be lower than the scores that all other four Toy Story movies have received. The first two Toy Story films stand at a perfect 100% score, while Toy Story 3 has a 98% rating and Toy Story 4 has a 97% rating. So while the bets for the film getting above a 97% rating are on the lower end here, the track record for the franchise would say otherwise.

Regardless of how well Toy Story 5 does with critics, it’s already looking like a box office smash. The latest forecast for the movie has it earning $150 million to $175 million in its domestic start, which would be the highest in 2026 above the $131 million from The Super Mario Galaxy Movie. While the Nintendo and Illumination movie has become the first this year to cross the $1 billion mark at the global box office, it’s possible that Toy Story 5 will become the highest-grossing film by the end of its theatrical run.

Unlike The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, though, this Pixar sequel will have major competitors in the form of Illumination’s Minions & Monsters that comes out on July 1 and Disney’s own live-action Moana that comes out on July 10. These two family-friendly alternatives, in addition to Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day and DCU’s Supergirl, will slow the momentum of Toy Story 5 during the summer break as casual moviegoers will have more than several alternatives to choose from.