Supergirl Might Not Stick the Landing After Concerning Box Office Prediction

The upcoming DCU film Supergirl is showing some worrying signs after receiving a lowered box office forecast. Directed by Craig Gillespie, this follow-up to David Corenswet’s Superman in 2025 is meant to cement James Gunn’s revamped DC Cinematic Universe. We previously noted that Supergirl, portrayed by House of the Dragon’s Milly Alcock, would need to fight to break even. And now it looks like it will face an even steeper uphill climb than expected. Supergirl is slated to release in the United States on June 26, 2026, and will premiere a few days earlier in Brooklyn on June 22.

Supergirl has its box office forecast surprisingly lowered

An updated box office prediction for Supergirl has the space-faring superhero flick earning $51 million, or somewhere between $47 million and $58 million, in its domestic opening weekend from June 26 to June 28. For its full theatrical run in the US and Canada, it’s predicted to rake in $125 million, or in the range from $107 million to $161 million.

This latest forecast comes from a June 13 report from BoxOfficeTheory. The analytics site previously predicted that Supergirl would have a higher domestic start between $47 million and $65 million, saying that it has effectively reduced its outlook by roughly 10 percent. This lower range is more or less shared by a June 12 report from BoxOffice Pro, which believes Supergirl will have a domestic start of $45 million to $55 million.

To compare this to the domestic starts of other DC films, both of these projections are notably lower than the $125 million for James Gunn’s Superman and the $67 million of 2022’s Black Adam starring Dwayne Johnson. It’s more in the ballpark of the $55 million from 2023’s The Flash, showing that Supergirl may not have the same momentum as anticipated now that we’re only a few weeks before its release.

That said, one piece of good news is that Supergirl has a reportedly lower benchmark to cross at the box office. It was previously unclear what the production budget was for the film, but Deadline reports that its net cost is $175 million and that it will make a profit after earning $315 million at the global box office. This is a surprise since most blockbusters are expected to bring in 2.5 times its cost to make a profit (so in this case, this break-even point would have been closer to $437 million).

One main obstacle to Supergirl’s performance at the box office is the heavy competition in June when it comes to family-friendly options at the theater. Pixar’s Toy Story 5 (June 19) has a projected domestic opener between $150 million and $184 million, while Minions & Monsters (July 1) has one between $53 million and $62 million. It will then have direct competition against Disney’s live-action Moana (July 10), which aims to appeal to multi-generational female audiences. These competitors will make it harder for Supergirl to have a leggy run, compared to other DC films that were not released during the usual hustle and bustle of a summer calendar.

Another issue is that Supergirl is not the most popular character in the DC universe to begin with. According to a “Best DC Comics Heroes of All Time” poll on Ranker based on fan votes, this superhero cousin to the Man of Steel sits in 25th place, between Blue Beetle and Robin (Tim Drake). A safer choice as a follow-up to the recent Superman film would have been to focus on Batman, The Flash, Wonder Woman, Nightwing, Green Lantern, or Martian Manhunter, even though some of these heroes are already in the works of getting their own revamp or TV series.

Despite some strange controversies, Supergirl is still expected to earn a high Rotten Tomatoes score.