This Country Is Expected to Win Eurovision 2026

Every song in the 2026 Eurovision competition has been released, and one country has emerged as the frontrunner among the 35 entries. This year, the 70th edition of the popular Eurovision Song Contest will be held in Vienna, Austria at the Wiener Stadthalle stadium, which hosted the competition in 2015. The first semi-final will take place soon on May 12, which will be quickly followed by the second semi-final on May 14 and the grand final on May 16. This 2026 contest, though, has not been able to avoid controversy, as five countries have decided not to return in protest of the war in Gaza. Meanwhile, Bulgaria, Moldova, and Romania will return after their recent absences in the competition.

One country has a commanding lead in 2026 Eurovision predictions

Finland is predicted to be the 2026 Eurovision winner, according to multiple prediction markets and polls (as of April 29). If Finland wins, it will be only the second time it takes home the top prize after Lordi’s “Hard Rock Hallelujah” in 2006.

The following are the odds that each country has to win the competition, from highest to lowest, based on a bet on Polymarket that has a whopping $118 million in the pot.

• Finland – 36%
  • “Liekinheitin” by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen
• Denmark – 13%
  • “Før vi går hjem” by Søren Torpegaard Lund
• Greece – 13%
  • “Ferto” by Akylas
• France – 10%
  • “Regarde!” by Monroe
• Australia – 6%
  • “Eclipse” by Delta Goodrem
• Israel – 5%
  • “Michelle” by Noam Bettan
• Sweden – 3%
  • “My System” by Felicia
• Italy – 3%
  • “Per sempre si” by Sal Da Vinci
• Romania – 2%
  • “Choke Me” by Alexandra Căpitănescu
• Malta – 2%
  • “Bella” by Aidan
• Ukraine – 1%
  • “Ridnym” by Leléka
• Cyprus – 1%
  • “Jalla” by Antigoni
• Czechia – 1%
  • “Crossroads” by Daniel Zizka
• Bulgaria – 1%
  • “Bangaranga” by Dara
• Moldova – 1%
  • “Viva, Moldova!” by Satoshi
• Croatia – 1%
  • “Andromeda” by Lelek
• Germany – Less than 1%
  • “Fire” by Sarah Engels
• Luxembourg – Less than 1%
  • “Mother Nature” by Eva Marija
• Norway – Less than 1%
  • “Ya Ya Ya” by Jonas Lovv
• Belgium – Less than 1%
  • “Dancing on the Ice” by Essyla
• Lithuania – Less than 1%
  • “Sólo quiero más” by Lion Ceccah
• Serbia – Less than 1%
  • “Kraj mene” by Lavina
• Switzerland – Less than 1%
  • “Alice” by Veronica Fusaro
• United Kingdom – Less than 1%
  • “Eins, Zwei, Drei” by Look Mum No Computer
• Albania – Less than 1%
  • “Nân” by Alis
• Austria – Less than 1%
  • Tanzchein by Cosmó
• Estonia – Less than 1%
  • “Too Epic to Be True” by Vanilla Ninja
• Latvia – Less than 1%
  • “Ēnā” by Atvara
• Portugal – Less than 1%
  • “Rosa” by Bandidos do Cante
• Armenia – Less than 1%
  • “Paloma Rumba” by Simón
• Azerbaijan – Less than 1%
  • “Just Go” by Jiva
• Georgia – Less than 1%
  • “Ferto” by Akylas
• Poland – Less than 1%
  • “Pray” by Alicja
• San Marino – Less than 1%
  • “Superstar” by Senhit
• Montenegro – Less than 1%
  • “Nova zora” by Tamara Živković

These predictions are shared by a similar bet on Kalshi, which has Finland at 37% with a 15-point lead over Greece at 12%. Denmark and France is in a two-way tie at 11%, with Australia close behind at 7% and Israel sitting at 4%.

In addition, Finland is in the lead in a Eurovision poll that asks audiences who should win the 2026 contest. With over 100,000 votes cast, the country holds 20% of the vote. In second place is Denmark at 11%, with France, Greece, and Sweden in a three-way tie at 6%. Australia also ranks high in sixth place at 5%. While Israel is in sixth place in both the Polymarket and Kalshi bets, it sits in twelfth place at 3% in the poll.

The music video for “Liekinheitin,” which combines Pete Parkkonen’s vocals with Linda Lampenius’ prowess on strings and a hard-hitting beat, has received over 3.8 million views on YouTube.