The Mandalorian would like those odds. The Pedro Pascal-led movie The Mandalorian & Grogu has received a new box office projection that is a vast improvement from before. Two weeks ago, the LucasFilm production was expected to bring in $71 million in its domestic opener, which is relatively high compared to some of its competition like Karl Urban’s Mortal Kombat 2. But for a Star Wars movie, this is lower than the $84 million domestic opener for 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story that unfortunately flopped at the box office. And then a survey from Fandango that asked audiences on what movies they’re looking forward to watching this summer had The Mandalorian & Grogu miss the Top 10. So this improved prediction for the film, which releases in the US on May 22, is welcome news.
How much will The Mandalorian movie make in its opening weekend?
The Mandalorian & Grogu is expected to earn somewhere between $90 million and $100 million in its opening weekend from May 22 to May 24 in the US and Canada.
This improved projection for the upcoming Disney movie comes from an April 24 report by BoxOffice Pro. The new analysis notes that The Mandalorian movie will break the six-year hiatus for the Star Wars franchise on the silver screen and that it could suffer an “adverse effect” for being an adaptation of a Disney+ series, despite it being one of the more well-received shows on the subscription service. Due to the box office struggles of other similar films that are based on a Disney+ series, like The Marvels and Thunderbolts*, the projection is markedly “conservative.” But the film could gain momentum over the coming month as marketing ramps up.
As a reference point, the movie is expected to have a domestic opener between those for Solo: A Star Wars Story ($84.4 million) and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ($155 million). Compared to the domestic openers of other films releasing in 2026, the film’s new box office prediction is lower than The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $131 million, higher than Project Hail Mary’s $80 million, and the same as The Devil Wears Prada 2’s (well, for now at least).
The reported production budget for The Mandalorian & Grogu is estimated to be $166 million, according to Bespin Bulletin, after the film received about $21 million in tax credits from a California Film and Television program. If true, this would be considerably less than Solo: A Star Wars Story’s massive $275 million budget and would mean that the film would need to earn roughly $415 million at the box office to break even. So earning about one-fourth of that in its domestic opener alone would be a strong start.
The popularity of the titular characters, Din Djarin as played by Pedro Pascal and Grogu who is more affectionally called “Baby Yoda,” will be a boon for the upcoming film. We haven’t seen a Star Wars flick in theaters since the COVID-19 pandemic, so there should be more anticipation from the fanbase. It’s also a family-friendly action movie that’s releasing far enough away from The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary that it should not face too much competition in its genre; that is, until it runs into the juggernaut that is Toy Story 5 that releases on June 19.
On the downside, it’s been three years since the third season of The Mandalorian aired in 2023. Audiences were very mixed on the effort, giving it a 51% rating on Rotten Tomatoes compared to the 93% rating that the show’s first season received. Casual moviegoers might feel as though they need to do homework by watching all three seasons of the series before they watch The Mandalorian & Grogu, as much as it is being pitched as a standalone movie.
